Image Credit- ICC
India
India is virtually guaranteed a spot in the
semi-finals with three games remaining and 12 points secured already.
Qualification can only be confirmed with a victory; even in the event of a loss
in all three, Afghanistan will still need to win its last three games, while
New Zealand and Australia will need to win two each. These three teams and
South Africa can qualify ahead of India if their net run rates are greater than
India’s.
South Africa
Despite playing one more game, South Africa has the
same number of points as India. Even with 12 points, their outstanding NRR
should keep them safe because two more points are needed to confirm
qualification.
Australia
Australia has won four straight games, showing that
they have matured after a sluggish start. If one of those victories is against
Afghanistan, then two wins will suffice to confirm qualification. Australia is
the frontrunner to qualify since they play Bangladesh, who has already
qualified out of the tournament.
New Zealand
After winning their first four games, New Zealand
dropped their next three. Their NRR has plummeted as a result of the crushing
defeat to South Africa, and their chances are further diminished by the
numerous injuries.
New Zealand will still have a great chance of
qualifying if they win their final two games and finish on twelve. However, a
loss to Pakistan on Saturday will leave both teams with eight points from as
many games, and a loss by more than eighty-four runs (in a 301-run chase) will
move them down on net run rate. If Afghanistan defeats the Netherlands on
Friday, they will advance to eight as well, and Sri Lanka may also be
considered.
All of this means the next ten days will be crucial
for all these teams. New Zealand’s last game is against Sri Lanka, and even if
they win that one after losing to Pakistan, it could still come down to net run
rates.
Afghanistan
The only other team that can still score 12 points,
besides the top four, is Afghanistan. But two of their three remaining matches
are in Ahmedabad against South Africa and in Mumbai against Australia. If the
top four teams don’t all reach 12 points, they’ll still be in the running if
they win two of those three games. They can tie New Zealand on points if they
defeat the Netherlands on Friday, but they will also need to win by a large
margin to raise their dismal -0.718 net run rate.
Pakistan
Pakistan could gain from the opening in the points
standings caused by South Africa’s crushing of New Zealand. With a win over
them on Saturday, they will tie New Zealand on eight points from eight games,
trailing them by just one win at this point. Pakistan’s final game versus
bottom-of-the-table England will take place at Eden Gardens. Pakistan’s
prospects of qualifying could depend on that outcome among other things.
Pakistan’s hopes are hanging in the balance if they
lose on Saturday. Australia must lose every game and remain on eight points,
and Pakistan also needs other outcomes involving Afghanistan and Sri Lanka to
go their way.